Airbnb Break-even Occupancy Calculator — STR Cash Flow Spreadsheet — Vacation Rental ROI — Excel + Google Sheets

Run your rentals before they run you. Break-even occupancy calculator for Airbnb and STR hosts. Returns the one number that matters and stress-tests it against ADR shifts. Editable Excel.

Insurance jumped $1,400 this year. The cleaner just bumped to $185 a turnover. Your platform commission is still 15%. You have no idea what occupancy you now need to hit to break even — and you won't know until December when the books close.

This calculator returns one number: the occupancy percent below which you are losing money. Then it shows the math behind it, then it stress-tests the answer across six occupancy scenarios and three ADR scenarios so you can see what actually breaks the property.

Three tabs. One property. Twenty minutes of inputs. Done.

═══════════════════════════════════════════
WHAT'S INCLUDED
═══════════════════════════════════════════

Excel workbook (3 tabs):

- Start — the answer lives here. Property name, break-even occupancy %, equivalent booked nights/year, your current occupancy (manual entry), margin gauge (✅ above break-even / ⚠ below)
- Calculator — one-page input panel. 7 revenue assumptions, 10 annual fixed costs, 4 per-turnover variable costs, 3 per-month recurring costs, 11 calculated outputs ending in the break-even % readout
- Sensitivity — 6×3 grid: occupancy 30/40/50/60/70/80% × ADR -10% / current / +10%. Each cell shows annual net cash flow at that scenario, color-coded red/parchment/gold

The calculator splits costs the way an underwriter splits costs: fixed vs variable per turnover vs recurring per month. Cleaning fee charged to the guest is netted against cleaning cost paid — most templates double-count or miss it entirely.

═══════════════════════════════════════════
WHY THIS PAYS FOR ITSELF IN AN AFTERNOON
═══════════════════════════════════════════

The Smokies Ridge Cabin sample data: $245 ADR, $185 cleaning paid, 15% platform, $13,860 fixed costs. Break-even occupancy: 24%.

That number alone is worth the $17. But the sensitivity grid is where it earns the price twice over. At 30% occupancy and ADR -10%, the property loses $19,000 a year. At 70% and ADR +10%, it nets $24,000. The 24% break-even is real — and the gap between it and the failure scenarios tells you how much margin you actually have.

A host who runs this against a refi quote, an insurance hike, or a cleaner rate change recovers the price on the first decision they avoid making blind.

═══════════════════════════════════════════
WHO IT'S FOR
═══════════════════════════════════════════

- Airbnb and VRBO hosts who want one number, not a 40-tab pro forma
- Hosts who just got a cost increase (insurance, cleaner, mortgage refi) and need to re-run the math today
- New hosts evaluating whether a property they already own is structurally profitable
- Hosts using the STR Deal Analyzer (ACQ-001) on a new acquisition who want to sanity-check the underwriting estimate
- Anyone who has ever said "I'll figure it out at tax time" and then figured out it was too late

═══════════════════════════════════════════
HOW IT WORKS
═══════════════════════════════════════════

1. Purchase → instant download
2. Open Calculator. Fill 24 input cells across 4 sections (revenue, fixed, variable, recurring) — about 20 minutes if you have one year of bills handy
3. Read the answer at the bottom of the Calculator tab — break-even occupancy %, with the math shown
4. Open Start. Enter your current 12-month occupancy. Margin gauge tells you how much room you have
5. Open Sensitivity. Find the cell that matches your current ADR and occupancy. Look at the cells below and to the left — that's your downside

═══════════════════════════════════════════
FAQ
═══════════════════════════════════════════

Does break-even include my mortgage principal?
No, and the workbook tells you so on the Start tab. This calculation covers operating costs plus mortgage interest. It does NOT cover principal paydown or the value of your time. True cash break-even is higher. We do not pretend otherwise — that is the integrity differentiator vs every other template on Etsy.

Can I use it for multiple properties?
One property per workbook. For portfolio-level break-even, use the multi-property P&L tracker. This file is designed to be re-run quickly when one property's costs change, not to consolidate.

What if I don't know my exact platform commission?
Default is 15% (Airbnb's standard host fee). VRBO is similar. Direct bookings: 0%. The cell is editable.

How does this connect to my P&L?
The Calculator tab includes a "Pull from your TAX-002 P&L" callout that tells you which cells in the Single-Property P&L Tracker feed which inputs here. We do not live-link — file paths break — but the cell map is on the page.

What's the 5% maintenance reserve about?...