STR Refi-or-Sell Decision Matrix – Airbnb Hold vs Sell vs 1031 Exchange (Excel)

Hold + refi vs sell vs 1031. 5-year wealth outcome per path. Refi-or-sell decision matrix for Airbnb / STR investors. Tax consequences, transaction costs, and 5-year cash-flow comparison. Excel + Google Sheets.

The "should we sell Lakehouse?" conversation is inevitable. Maybe rates dropped
and a refi is suddenly attractive. Maybe a buyer made an unsolicited offer.
Maybe the property has plateaued and you're considering 1031'ing into a bigger
asset.

Most hosts answer this conversation with vibes. This workbook answers it with
math: 5-year wealth outcome under three paths — Hold + cash-out refi, Sell
outright, Sell + 1031 exchange. Tax consequences (depreciation recapture,
capital gain), transaction costs, and the actual after-tax dollars in your
pocket per path.

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WHAT'S INCLUDED
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📋 Property Snapshot — current value, debt, basis, accumulated depreciation
📋 Hold + Refi Inputs — projected refi rate, term, LTV, cash-out
📋 Sell Outright Inputs — selling costs, capital gains rate, depreciation recapture (25% federal)
📋 1031 Inputs — replacement property target + financing
📋 5-Year Wealth Comparison
· Year-0 cash position per path
· Year-5 cumulative cash flow per path
· Year-5 equity per path
· Total wealth comparison
📋 Tax Math Per Path
· Cap gain (sale price − basis − selling costs)
· Depreciation recapture (accumulated × 25% federal)
· State capital gains
· Net sale proceeds after tax
· 1031 deferral (taxes deferred, basis carries over)

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WHEN EACH PATH WINS
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· **Hold + Refi:** appreciating + cash-flowing + you can deploy cash-out into next acquisition
· **Sell:** plateau + market peak + you're exiting STR, OR have a higher-return use for cash
· **1031:** scaling up + market still has runway + want to defer tax while compounding into larger asset

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WHO THIS IS FOR
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· STR investors evaluating an unsolicited offer
· Operators considering portfolio restructure
· Anyone whose accountant said "you should think about 1031" without showing the math
· Hosts approaching retirement or major life event

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HEAVY DISCLAIMERS
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Tax math handles federal cap gain, depreciation recapture, and basic state
rates. State-specific surtaxes, NIIT (3.8%), AMT exposure, and §1031 boot
calculation are simplified. Run the workbook for the structure, hand the
numbers to your CPA + tax attorney for the final filing.

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FILE COMPATIBILITY
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✅ Excel 2016+ · ✅ Excel 365 · ✅ Google Sheets

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REFUNDS
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14-day refund, no questions. hello [!at] thestrledger.com.

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⚠ Digital product. Not legal or tax advice. The 1031 path requires a Qualified Intermediary by IRS rule — see ACQ-011 1031 Exchange Tracker for execution.